NewsTrust.net - Blog: Iran's Disputed Election

Despite the wide media attention the Iranian election and subsequent demonstrations have received, little agreement exists over the question at the core of the events: Was Iran's election rigged?

Our community has been reviewing worldwide news and opinion on the Iranian election since Friday, when it grew overnight from a regional event to a global media phenomenon. Many publications and observers have pointed to evidence that suggests fraud, but the only consensus we've identified -- even now that the Iranian government has ordered a partial recount -- is one of uncertainty.

The dispute began just hours after polls closed Friday night. When the results came in earlier than expected, the New York Times ran a high-profile story on President Mahmoud Ahmaddinejad and challenger Mir Hussein Moussavi both claiming victory. A landslide victory of Ahmadinejad called so soon raised questions of foul play, the Times reported:

Fraud has been a prominent concern for Mr. Moussavi’s campaign, with many of his allies warning that Mr. Ahmadinejad could use the levers of state — the military, the Revolutionary Guard, and the Basij militia — to cajole or intimidate voters, or even engage in outright fraud. In 2005, Mr. Karroubi, who is also a candidate in this election, accused the Basij of rigging the vote in Mr. Ahmadinejad’s favor.

As Iranian officials reported record turnouts, the possibility of voting irregularities became a topic of intense focus over the weekend. Abbas Barzegar called it "wishful thinking" in an op-ed in the Guardian. Citing a Western misconception of the deeply religious nature of many Iranians, Barzegar said that if Moussavi were a significant threat to Ahmadinejad he would have been barred from running at all. William Owney praised it for its nuance: "The writer articulates a useful context born of an in-depth comprehension of the social structures at play," he said. "This is so much more than the thin veneer that characterizes much of contemporary reportage."

Juan Cole of the Global Americana Institute called Iran's election "stolen" in a blog post on Informed Comment. He listed six pieces of evidence to support his view, including Ahmadinejad's unlikely victory in Tehran and the Election Commission's premature announcement of the results.

The Economist took a neutral view. Without commenting extensively on the likelihood of fraud, the news magazine said any outcome would have had little impact on Iranian foreign policy.

As ambiguity over the results gave way to large-scale anti-government demonstrations, others weighed in on the reality behind the numbers -- with little success. A Washington Post news blogger, Jon Cohen, questioned a guest op-ed in his newspaper that cited a poll showing Ahmadinejad well ahead of Moussavi in mid-May. While the poll offered reason to be skeptical of the opposition's claims, he said, it left too many -- 52 percent -- unaccounted for to be definitive. Both stories were rated highly on NewsTrust -- but Dan Kennedy noted that the polling blog FiveThirtyEight had called the May poll unreliable. Wired, too, attempted to crunch the numbers on Iran's election, but drew few conclusions, citing circumstantiality of evidence.

Speculation about the results continued this week, but gave way to widespread coverage from the streets of Tehran and other centers of public protest. Global Voices rounded up citizen reports from Twitter, Flickr and YouTube of the demonstrations and the violence accompanying them, and Al Jazeera and the BBC featured video of pro-Moussavi rallies. The Iranian government has since backpedaled on its initial proclamations and ordered a partial vote recount, while at the same time ejecting most Western journalists from the country.

Throughout the week, we'll continue to look for the best coverage of events surrounding this disputed election in Iran. You can find the most recent stories on our Iran topic page.

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